Toiture n°36

The storm before the clearing

Month after month, the situation looks the same for building crafts. As usual, CAPEB has published its quarterly activity results in its business survey. And once again, they are not good. The concern that has persisted throughout the year is far from easing, as the drop in activity continues inexorably: after -3% the previous quarter, there is now a further year-on-year decline of 5% hitting the summer months and the September back-to-work period.

These alarming figures remain closely tied to the state of new construction, which keeps plunging: -3.5% in the first quarter, -6.5% in the second, and now -11%! A catastrophic slide reminiscent of the grim post-financial-crisis period and its record -11.5% drop in Q4 2009… Housing starts fell by nearly 20% this past quarter, and the picture is even starker for single-family homes, where the data show -33.4%! From September 2023 to August 2024, 343,100 homes were authorized for construction and 269,700 were started, i.e., 36,000 and nearly 67,000 fewer respectively than between September 2022 and August 2023.

The consequence is brutal for craftspeople, with the average order book reported at seventy-one days, six days less than in previous quarters. A quarter of companies in the confederation report cash-flow problems due to falling activity and longer client payment times. All trades are affected, and the roofing-plumbing-heating division (according to CAPEB’s breakdown) shows a worrying contraction of -5% (versus -2% in the previous quarter).

In short, unfortunately, nothing is going right. But it is in the darkest periods that we have to hold on to the positives (or, let’s say, the least negative). While not miraculous, a few signs are encouraging. Maintenance-renovation activity volume is keeping its head above water as best it can, with a modest year-on-year decrease of 1%, a pace similar to previous quarters. The same goes for energy-efficiency upgrade work, down by “only” 0.5%. Finally, gradual disinflation and, above all, the European Central Bank easing its key rates point to a recovery in the real-estate market and more accessible credit. Not in the immediate future, of course, but in the medium to longer term. Until then, we must hold firm and wait for better days…

Brice Alexandre Roboam